The Dot Plot
What Is The Dot Plot?
The dot plot is a chart the Federal Reserve releases quarterly alongside its economic projections, showing each FOMC participant's individual expectation for where the federal funds rate should be in coming years. Each "dot" represents one participant's view, plotted anonymously, so the chart displays the full range of opinion on the committee without attributing any dot to a specific person. Formally part of the Summary of Economic Projections, the dot plot lets the public see how much agreement or disagreement exists about the likely path of rates, as well as where participants think rates will settle over the longer run.
Why It Matters
The dot plot is one of the most closely watched pieces of Fed communication because it offers a rare, structured glimpse into policymakers' individual thinking about the future path of rates. Markets scrutinize the median dot and how it shifts from one quarterly release to the next for hints about the committee's leanings. The chart is a form of forward guidance, but an imperfect one: the dots represent projections, not promises, and participants revise them as the economy evolves. Because it is anonymous, the dot plot shows the diversity of views on the FOMC without locking any member into a commitment, which is both its strength and a source of frequent misinterpretation.