Why the Economics Nobel Was Created — and What It Changed

Play Nobel Laureate Timeline →

What Led to the Prize Being Created

What the Prize Changed for Economics

The Criticisms It Attracted

What the Prize Does and Does Not Certify

It is worth being precise about what an award of this kind can establish. The Academy's citation identifies a body of work judged to have changed how economists analyse a problem; it does not certify that the work is correct, still less that its policy implications are sound. The 1997 prize for options pricing went to Robert Merton and Myron Scholes shortly before the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, a fund with which both were associated — a sequence often cited by critics, though the pricing model itself remains standard. The 2013 award to Fama and Shiller placed two incompatible readings of asset price behaviour on the same platform. Read carefully, the prize is a record of which questions the discipline has decided are central, which makes it a useful map of the field's history and a poor substitute for judging any particular argument on its merits.